Tue, Dec 3, 2024·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Seattle Kraken 4, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 16 | 114 | 28 | 428 |
| CAR | 15 | 02 | 112 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Yanni Gourde, Matty Beniers · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 4:56CAREric RobinsonAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:56SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 5:43CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Shayne Gostisbehere · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 10:48SEAYanni GourdeGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Matty Beniers · Snap, 0.26 xG3–2
- P3 15:03SEABrandon TanevAssists: Ryan Winterton, Brandon Montour · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 12:21CAREric Robinson: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:18CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:54SEAJosh Mahura: Delaying game smothering puck2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Drury won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Gourde – Beniers12:30
xG 0.79–0.05 (94%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Stephens – Kartye – Winterton6:59
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Wright9:52
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Stephenson – McCann – Tanev9:49
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn16:08
xG 1.53–0.18 (90%)attempts 27–12goals 3–1
- Montour – Dunn2:36
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Larsson – Oleksiak2:06
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Jarvis13:50
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Necas – Robinson – Drury3:04
xG 0.14–0.12 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Carrier – Kotkaniemi – Blake7:53
xG 0.07–0.17 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Svechnikov – Drury6:50
xG 0.01–0.21 (6%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gostisbehere – Walker14:19
xG 0.53–0.61 (46%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Burns – Slavin15:45
xG 0.10–0.25 (29%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Orlov – Chatfield15:33
xG 0.40–0.56 (42%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).