Thu, Dec 5, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Winnipeg Jets 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 114 | 112 | 03 | 12 | 331 |
| BUF | 211 | 010 | 07 | 02 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 4:14WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Haydn Fleury, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 11:29BUFDylan CozensAssists: Zach Benson, Connor Clifton · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 3:06WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.18 xG2–2
- OT 3:59WPGAdam LowryGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:28WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:14BUFJJ Peterka: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 11:38BUFDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:38WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:38BUFDennis Gilbert: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:38WPGLogan Stanley: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:48BUFNicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:59BUFBowen Byram: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:33BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:33BUFJacob Bryson: Interference2 min
- P2 17:36WPGNeal Pionk: Interference2 min
- P2 19:18BUFJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:18WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:51WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kozak won the faceoff against Kupari
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:07
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Perfetti – Lambert4:52
xG 0.59–0.57 (51%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari2:48
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Perfetti3:44
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Fleury12:10
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk17:36
xG 0.90–0.82 (52%)attempts 22–18goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Heinola2:22
xG 0.09–0.29 (23%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestAube-Kubel – Malenstyn – Kozak7:27
xG 0.51–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Zucker – Tuch – Thompson8:37
xG 0.39–0.21 (64%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson9:03
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- McLeod – Krebs – Kulich9:37
xG 0.54–0.83 (39%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Gilbert6:46
xG 0.52–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Clifton – Power3:21
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bryson – Byram11:27
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).