Thu, Dec 5, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 04 | 18 | 120 |
| OTT | 114 | 013 | 15 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:14OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 6:15DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 19:17OTTJosh NorrisGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:06DETJonatan Berggren: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:56DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:24DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:28DETMoritz Seider: Embellishment2 min
- P3 4:28OTTJosh Norris: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:00OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:19OTTTim Stützle: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:29DETJonatan Berggren: Holding2 min
- P3 12:09OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
- P3 13:08DETMarco Kasper: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Compher – DeBrincat8:43
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Berggren – Kasper7:58
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Motte – Copp – Fischer5:23
xG 0.06–0.06 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Larkin – Rasmussen – Raymond9:08
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot15:27
xG 0.96–0.58 (62%)attempts 19–19goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider2:15
xG 0.03–0.07 (30%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Holl – Johansson8:09
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGaudette – Gregor – Ostapchuk3:05
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk7:18
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto10:02
xG 0.06–0.36 (15%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Greig – Stützle9:03
xG 0.19–0.56 (25%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot14:01
xG 0.83–0.49 (63%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven11:08
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson12:27
xG 0.28–0.51 (35%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).