Thu, Dec 5, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 7, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 27 | 213 | 38 | 728 |
| PHI | 010 | 413 | 111 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:36FLAEvan RodriguesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 6:57FLANiko MikkolaAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Jesper Boqvist · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 3:00FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 7:13PHITyson FoersterPPAssists: Joel Farabee, Matvei Michkov · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 9:31PHINick SeelerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 13:35FLACarter VerhaeghePPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
- P2 17:41PHIOwen TippettAssists: Matvei Michkov · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P2 18:04PHIOwen TippettAssists: Matvei Michkov · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 5:39PHIGarnet HathawayAssists: Scott Laughton, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–5
- P3 14:43FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Sam Bennett, Evan Rodrigues · Snap, 0.02 xG5–5
- P3 18:01FLASam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–5
- P3 19:49FLAMatthew TkachukENAssists: Sam Reinhart, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.77 xG7–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:16FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:32PHIJoel Farabee: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:30FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:47PHIScott Laughton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:12FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:37FLAAdam Boqvist: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:27PHIBobby Brink: Interference2 min
- P3 14:27FLADmitry Kulikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:27PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:32PHIJoel Farabee: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:32FLAGustav Forsling: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:32PHIJoel Farabee: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:36PHIEmil Andrae: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart14:11
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell7:36
xG 0.11–0.22 (33%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Nosek – Greer – Gadjovich6:09
xG 0.11–0.49 (19%)attempts 4–12goals 0–2
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Boqvist9:47
xG 0.17–0.80 (17%)attempts 8–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Mikkola9:38
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 20–6goals 1–2
- Ekblad – Forsling14:26
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Schmidt2:33
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Hathaway – Poehling7:25
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster6:26
xG 0.25–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Tippett – Frost – Michkov7:04
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Farabee13:54
xG 0.30–0.41 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Zamula10:52
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Andrae11:58
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Sanheim – York16:05
xG 0.86–0.76 (53%)attempts 23–18goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).