Thu, Dec 5, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 4, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 28 | 09 | 14 | 13 | 424 |
| CGY | 114 | 19 | 115 | 01 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49STLZachary BolducPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Philip Broberg · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 14:49STLRobert ThomasAssists: Jake Neighbours, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 15:04CGYJakob PelletierAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Daniil Miromanov · Snap, 0.25 xG2–1
- P2 5:23CGYMatt CoronatoPPAssists: Connor Zary, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 6:00STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Robert Thomas, Philip Broberg · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 7:06CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 2:25STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Robert Thomas, Dylan Holloway · Poke, 0.29 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:03STLMatthew Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:08CGYKevin Bahl: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:35STLAlexey Toropchenko: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:57STLBrandon Saad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:01CGYNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
- P2 12:01STLNathan Walker: Interference2 min
- P3 3:54CGYMartin Pospisil: Interference2 min
- P3 6:13CGYNazem Kadri: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:41STLJordan Binnington: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours11:00
xG 1.04–0.26 (80%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko8:31
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Saad – Sundqvist – Bolduc6:50
xG 0.02–0.27 (5%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway9:42
xG 0.35–0.89 (28%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJoseph – Perunovich4:11
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Suter – Perunovich2:22
xG 0.15–0.03 (81%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Parayko – Broberg17:53
xG 0.78–1.08 (42%)attempts 14–26goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Zary – Duehr8:04
xG 0.70–0.09 (89%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Pelletier6:01
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil12:44
xG 0.67–0.68 (50%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato8:43
xG 0.23–0.78 (23%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBean – Pachal10:01
xG 0.95–0.35 (73%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl15:11
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Weegar – Miromanov14:50
xG 0.86–1.02 (46%)attempts 22–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).