Sat, Dec 7, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 27 | 112 | 06 | 01 | 326 |
| BOS | 09 | 19 | 212 | 11 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24PHIMatvei MichkovPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Emil Andrae · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:24PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 5:26BOSTrent FredericPPAssists: Mason Lohrei, Morgan Geekie · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 15:29PHICam YorkAssists: Travis Sanheim, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 5:18BOSTrent FredericAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mark Kastelic · Snap, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 14:38BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Justin Brazeau · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- OT 2:49BOSPavel ZachaGWGAssists: David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:41PHIJoel Farabee: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:13BOSMark Kastelic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:42PHICam York: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:32PHICam York: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:37BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:37PHIEmil Andrae: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:31BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:31BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:31PHIOwen Tippett: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:05PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min
- P3 10:33PHIGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:03PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Kastelic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Farabee11:15
xG 1.02–0.40 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Tippett – Frost – Michkov9:08
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster6:07
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Laughton – Hathaway – Poehling9:19
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York13:10
xG 0.96–0.21 (82%)attempts 18–3goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Andrae12:18
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – York2:56
xG 0.06–0.11 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Frederic – Kastelic7:52
xG 0.34–0.26 (56%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Marchand – Lindholm – Brazeau3:19
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher2:17
xG 0.05–0.02 (67%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Zacha – Brazeau – Geekie5:53
xG 0.05–0.11 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – McAvoy3:07
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Carlo – Lohrei2:32
xG 0.07–0.01 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Peeke5:52
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).