Sat, Dec 7, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
San Jose Sharks 1, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 06 | 09 | 114 | 129 |
| FLA | 115 | 219 | 020 | 354 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:23FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Sam Bennett · Bat, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 10:05FLAMatthew TkachukGWGAssists: Tomas Nosek · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 13:17FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 18:35SJSTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jake Walman · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:27FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 1:19SJSTimothy Liljegren: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:16FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:39SJSKlim Kostin: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:16FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:05SJSMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:19FLAA.J. Greer: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:47SJSMario Ferraro: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 4:47SJSMario Ferraro: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:47FLASam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:39FLANiko Mikkola: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:46FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:46SJSFabian Zetterlund: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:31FLAEetu Luostarinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00FLASam Bennett: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGrundstrom – Dellandrea – Sturm5:54
xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Granlund – Kostin – Cardwell6:19
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Kostin – Cardwell – Celebrini2:04
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Eklund – Celebrini6:54
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 1–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Ferraro6:58
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Ceci – Walman2:49
xG 0.12–0.49 (20%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Rutta – Thrun10:54
xG 0.14–0.53 (21%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Tkachuk – Boqvist6:49
xG 0.79–0.34 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart8:29
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Samoskevich6:00
xG 0.47–0.17 (74%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell6:32
xG 0.16–0.13 (56%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola9:52
xG 0.80–0.27 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling9:36
xG 0.63–0.10 (86%)attempts 20–3goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Balinskis11:32
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).