Sat, Dec 7, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Nashville Predators 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 012 | 117 | 137 |
| OTT | 011 | 211 | 18 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:07OTTJacob Bernard-DockerAssists: Tim Stützle, Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 16:52OTTClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 12:37OTTNick CousinsAssists: Michael Amadio · Snap, 0.18 xG0–3
- P3 18:03NSHFedor SvechkovAssists: Mark Jankowski, Zachary L'Heureux · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:24NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:51NSHZachary L'Heureux: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:32OTTZack Ostapchuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:32NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:26OTTTim Stützle: Holding2 min
- P3 13:42NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Novak – Evangelista8:41
xG 0.80–0.25 (76%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Nyquist – Forsberg9:57
xG 0.71–0.63 (53%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Sissons – McCarron – Smith7:21
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Marchessault – L'Heureux – Svechkov7:02
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Wilsby11:14
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Wilsby – Blankenburg3:34
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Skjei3:31
xG 0.13–0.12 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk10:41
xG 1.16–0.32 (78%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Giroux – Gaudette – Stützle7:27
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto14:09
xG 0.70–0.69 (50%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Gregor – Greig – Ostapchuk9:00
xG 0.16–0.46 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson11:35
xG 1.59–0.93 (63%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven12:00
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Kleven – Sanderson2:34
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).