Sun, Dec 8, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 218 | 28 | 433 |
| VAN | 18 | 05 | 112 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:08VANQuinn HughesAssists: Pius Suter · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 4:40TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 6:29TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 4:52VANKiefer SherwoodAssists: Tyler Myers, Aatu Räty · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2
- P3 16:04TBLJake GuentzelPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 19:42TBLBrayden PointENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.80 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:55TBLBrandon Hagel: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 5:08VANVincent Desharnais: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:35TBLConor Geekie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:13VANPius Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:58VANConor Garland: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:09VANNils Hoglander: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Girgensons – Eyssimont7:32
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Paul – Hagel – Chaffee3:56
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Paul – Hagel3:12
xG 0.17–0.04 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel2:33
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoser – Lilleberg4:09
xG 0.61–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Moser7:39
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Raddysh3:16
xG 0.21–0.12 (63%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Garland – Suter8:34
xG 0.43–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Heinen – Räty – Sasson5:27
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Blueger – Sherwood – Hoglander7:33
xG 0.26–0.37 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Boeser – DeBrusk – Pettersson10:50
xG 0.20–0.72 (22%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Juulsen10:58
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Myers – Desharnais2:38
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Brannstrom9:18
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).