Tue, Dec 10, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 27 | 211 | 17 | 525 |
| CBJ | 04 | 17 | 27 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37PHINoah CatesAssists: Tyson Foerster, Cam York · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P1 10:56PHIOwen TippettAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 6:11PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Matvei Michkov, Bobby Brink · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 16:56CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Kirill Marchenko · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 19:00PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Joel Farabee, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 1:55PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Matvei Michkov · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–1
- P3 11:42CBJSean MonahanAssists: Dante Fabbro, Kent Johnson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 19:23CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Damon Severson, James van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:55CBJCole Sillinger: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:33CBJKevin Labanc: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:19CBJMathieu Olivier: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:51CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:51PHINick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:37PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:26PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Frost – Michkov9:02
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Farabee12:46
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Cates – Brink – Foerster10:29
xG 0.68–0.41 (63%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Laughton – Hathaway – Poehling10:07
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale9:45
xG 0.96–0.24 (80%)attempts 15–10goals 3–0
- Sanheim – York17:21
xG 0.81–0.52 (61%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Andrae13:55
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Monahan – Johnson12:02
xG 0.51–0.17 (74%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Sillinger10:18
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Labanc – Danforth5:28
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Labanc – Aston-Reese – Sillinger2:14
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Severson – Provorov16:54
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Harris – Christiansen12:33
xG 0.44–0.99 (31%)attempts 10–18goals 0–2
- Werenski – Fabbro17:16
xG 0.21–0.97 (18%)attempts 8–24goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).