Tue, Dec 10, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Boston Bruins 1, Winnipeg Jets 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 08 | 18 | 08 | 124 |
| WPG | 214 | 18 | 513 | 835 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:09WPGVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 18:01WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi · Snap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 7:02WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 9:13BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 1:15WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 5:33WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 7:19WPGAlex IafalloPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Nikita Chibrikov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–6
- P3 16:16WPGMason AppletonAssists: Haydn Fleury, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–7
- P3 16:26WPGNikita ChibrikovAssists: Cole Perfetti · Slap, 0.09 xG1–8
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:25BOSTrent Frederic: Interference2 min
- P1 10:30BOSBrandon Carlo: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 4:49WPGNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:38BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:26WPGNeal Pionk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:45BOSCharlie McAvoy: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P3 7:27WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:27WPGDavid Gustafsson: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:27BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:27BOSMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:27BOSMark Kastelic: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:27WPGLogan Stanley: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:29WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:29BOSNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:41BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Frederic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Lindholm – Brazeau6:06
xG 1.07–0.11 (90%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Koepke – Beecher – McLaughlin7:26
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Coyle – Frederic – Kastelic7:50
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie9:47
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – McAvoy13:31
xG 1.12–0.64 (64%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Zadorov – McAvoy3:03
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Peeke – Lohrei14:23
xG 0.49–0.46 (51%)attempts 17–13goals 0–3
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:38
xG 0.71–0.24 (75%)attempts 14–11goals 3–0
- Namestnikov – Perfetti – Chibrikov9:16
xG 0.38–0.34 (52%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Gustafsson5:54
xG 0.05–0.45 (10%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:43
xG 0.13–1.14 (10%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanley – Heinola9:39
xG 0.47–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Fleury2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pionk – Heinola2:33
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).