Tue, Dec 10, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 07 | 17 | 08 | 122 |
| EDM | 18 | 112 | 06 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:31EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Brett Kulak · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 10:02TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 11:58EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:43TBLBrandon Hagel: Holding2 min
- P1 14:40EDMJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:04TBLMitchell Chaffee: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:18EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Paul – Hagel2:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Glendening – Girgensons – Eyssimont6:22
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Paul – Hagel – Chaffee9:10
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point12:13
xG 0.41–0.60 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Perbix – Lilleberg8:53
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Moser16:50
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Raddysh – Lilleberg6:10
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin9:04
xG 1.61–0.06 (96%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Perry – Brown – Ryan4:17
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:38
xG 0.36–0.22 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Brown – Draisaitl3:13
xG 0.15–0.15 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Nurse9:00
xG 1.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Kulak – Emberson8:48
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Stecher – Emberson2:31
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).