Tue, Dec 10, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
St. Louis Blues 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 27 | 111 | 05 | 12 | 425 |
| VAN | 18 | 19 | 18 | 00 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:02VANDakota JoshuaAssists: Conor Garland, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 9:15STLZachary BolducAssists: Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 17:30STLRobert ThomasSHAssists: Colton Parayko, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 16:18STLJordan KyrouPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 18:32VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 18:08VANJake DeBruskAssists: Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.30 xG3–3
- OT 1:40STLDylan HollowayGWGAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:59STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:01VANCarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:43VANBrock Boeser: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:20STLBrayden Schenn: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:59STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:00STLOskar Sundqvist: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:00VANKiefer Sherwood: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Holloway – Bolduc9:13
xG 0.71–0.15 (83%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas11:06
xG 0.52–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko8:37
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Neighbours11:01
xG 0.30–0.47 (38%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg15:57
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Joseph – Kessel11:14
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Suter – Faulk16:34
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 13–18goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – DeBrusk – Pettersson12:40
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Heinen – Räty – Sasson8:34
xG 0.09–0.18 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Blueger – Sherwood – Hoglander9:01
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Joshua – Garland – Suter10:17
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes15:54
xG 0.75–0.23 (77%)attempts 22–12goals 1–1
- Friedman – Desharnais8:52
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Soucy – Friedman3:00
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).