Thu, Dec 12, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Anaheim Ducks 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 18 | 115 | 05 | 228 |
| TOR | 29 | 114 | 010 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:57TORMax PaciorettyAssists: John Tavares, Jake McCabe · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 14:17TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Max Pacioretty, Morgan Rielly · Bat, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 15:56ANAFrank VatranoPPAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 12:54TORMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Conor Timmins, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 13:59ANAJackson LaCombeAssists: Ryan Strome, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:08ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:53TORSimon Benoit: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:44ANAJacob Trouba: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- McGinn – Harkins – Lundeström7:10
xG 0.02–0.29 (6%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry11:26
xG 0.32–0.85 (27%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Fabbri – McTavish – Gauthier11:56
xG 0.74–1.51 (33%)attempts 11–21goals 0–2
- Killorn – Leason – Carlsson10:18
xG 0.06–0.94 (6%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudas – LaCombe16:13
xG 0.64–0.87 (42%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Trouba – Mintyukov14:45
xG 0.13–0.99 (11%)attempts 5–25goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Fowler16:58
xG 0.39–1.83 (18%)attempts 13–22goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies14:12
xG 1.67–0.45 (79%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander15:29
xG 1.76–0.67 (72%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
- Domi – Holmberg – Minten10:36
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Reaves – Lorentz – Dewar7:08
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Benoit14:08
xG 1.58–0.24 (87%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly15:18
xG 1.24–0.42 (75%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Tanev – McCabe15:17
xG 0.89–0.36 (71%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).