Thu, Dec 12, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
San Jose Sharks 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 114 | 211 | 16 | 431 |
| STL | 14 | 08 | 28 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:21SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Nikolai Kovalenko · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 10:26STLJake NeighboursAssists: Ryan Suter, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:43SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Nikolai Kovalenko · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 19:53SJSMacklin CelebriniPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 5:34STLBrayden SchennAssists: Zachary Bolduc, Jake Neighbours · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 6:01SJSJake WalmanGWGAssists: Nikolai Kovalenko, Nico Sturm · Snap, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 7:57STLJordan KyrouAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:00SJSTy Dellandrea: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:00STLNathan Walker: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:40STLJake Neighbours: Holding2 min
- P1 19:26SJSTy Dellandrea: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:33SJSJan Rutta: Interference2 min
- P2 18:05STLDylan Holloway: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:05STLDylan Holloway: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:05SJSKlim Kostin: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Kovalenko – Celebrini7:41
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Dellandrea – Sturm – Eklund4:46
xG 0.11–0.05 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Eklund3:13
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Wennberg – Kunin6:54
xG 0.12–0.30 (28%)attempts 10–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Walman16:29
xG 0.97–0.75 (56%)attempts 15–17goals 2–1
- Ferraro – Rutta2:40
xG 0.05–0.03 (65%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Rutta – Mukhamadullin13:39
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWalker – Joseph – Toropchenko6:28
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas6:29
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Schenn – Holloway – Neighbours4:01
xG 0.05–0.03 (57%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Kyrou7:33
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Faulk6:50
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 12–1goals 1–0
- Faulk – Broberg11:57
xG 0.30–0.12 (70%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Parayko – Broberg8:09
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).