Sat, Dec 14, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 04 | 19 | 122 |
| MIN | 18 | 17 | 27 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:18MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Jon Merrill, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 15:21MINMatt BoldyGWGAssists: Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 9:34MINMarco RossiAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Declan Chisholm · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 14:18PHITravis SanheimAssists: Ryan Poehling, Garnet Hathaway · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 17:50MINKirill KaprizovENAssists: Marcus Foligno, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:27PHIGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:29MINJared Spurgeon: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:37PHIGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:37MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:41MINJon Merrill: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:09MINMatt Boldy: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:44MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:44PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Cates – Brink – Foerster6:22
xG 0.22–0.18 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Laughton – Hathaway – Poehling8:05
xG 0.12–0.18 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Farabee10:29
xG 0.14–0.23 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Michkov7:13
xG 0.15–0.35 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zamula13:11
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Drysdale5:05
xG 0.07–0.02 (77%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Seeler – Drysdale8:59
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi11:08
xG 0.39–0.09 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Jones4:55
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Boldy2:00
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Johnson – Khusnutdinov2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber17:57
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Chisholm15:11
xG 0.37–0.27 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Merrill10:35
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).