Sat, Dec 14, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Montréal Canadiens 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 010 | 19 | 228 |
| WPG | 211 | 19 | 17 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:48MTLLane HutsonAssists: Mike Matheson, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:34WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P1 16:40WPGAdam LowryAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P2 6:26WPGKyle ConnorPPGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Gabriel Vilardi · Slap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 8:00MTLJosh AndersonAssists: Christian Dvorak, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 19:53WPGVladislav NamestnikovENAssists: Alex Iafallo · Backhand, 0.60 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 13:46MTLKirby Dach: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:28MTLCole Caufield: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:53MTLChristian Dvorak: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:56WPGAlex Iafallo: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:36MTLJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:09WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:39WPGMason Appleton: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:10WPGKyle Connor: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:17MTLCole Caufield: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:25MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Evans – Heineman8:38
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak9:13
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský8:56
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Laine – Dach – Newhook9:51
xG 0.25–0.73 (25%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Hutson11:16
xG 0.72–0.57 (56%)attempts 13–4goals 2–1
- Savard – Hutson3:07
xG 0.20–0.05 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj6:09
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Perfetti – Chibrikov9:55
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi10:46
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari6:56
xG 0.04–0.22 (16%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton7:12
xG 0.43–0.71 (38%)attempts 4–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Stanley10:38
xG 0.65–0.11 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey13:13
xG 0.98–0.63 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Fleury – Pionk12:16
xG 0.07–0.78 (8%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).