Sat, Dec 14, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Nashville Predators 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 013 | 016 | 210 | 239 |
| COL | 08 | 210 | 315 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:32COLRoss ColtonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 18:52COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P3 3:30COLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 13:03NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 15:08NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Adam Wilsby, Tommy Novak · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 18:08COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–4
- P3 19:10COLArtturi LehkonenENAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Parker Kelly · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:27NSHNick Blankenburg: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:16COLGivani Smith: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:50NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:50COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:28NSHBrady Skjei: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:14NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:14COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista7:06
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – L'Heureux11:19
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg12:13
xG 0.85–0.91 (48%)attempts 19–22goals 1–0
- Sissons – McCarron – Smith8:23
xG 0.22–0.32 (41%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Blankenburg17:40
xG 1.15–0.63 (65%)attempts 25–15goals 1–0
- Gravel – Wilsby14:24
xG 0.56–0.69 (45%)attempts 16–16goals 0–2
- Schenn – Del Gaizo12:53
xG 0.14–0.73 (16%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:54
xG 0.80–0.47 (63%)attempts 15–19goals 2–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta9:56
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Colton – Mittelstadt11:36
xG 0.68–0.45 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Wagner – Smith – Ivan7:01
xG 0.04–0.24 (16%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar15:56
xG 1.08–0.39 (74%)attempts 23–15goals 2–0
- Toews – Malinski3:46
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar3:33
xG 0.27–0.25 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).