Sun, Dec 15, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New York Rangers 2, St. Louis Blues 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 011 | 29 | 228 |
| STL | 17 | 27 | 010 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas · Slap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 6:33STLJordan KyrouAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 10:28STLRobert ThomasGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 10:18NYRBrett BerardUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 11:37NYRWill CuylleAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Filip Chytil · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (1)
- P1 8:35NYRJonny Brodzinski: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Chytil
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Smith – Trocheck – Brodzinski12:42
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Chytil – Lafrenière – Cuylle13:41
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Zibanejad – Vesey – Berard9:45
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Carrick – Edstrom10:25
xG 0.15–0.31 (33%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Jones – Schneider17:03
xG 0.39–0.48 (45%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Ruhwedel – Mackey12:33
xG 0.26–0.57 (32%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren18:36
xG 0.34–0.70 (33%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours12:41
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Toropchenko10:04
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Saad – Holloway – Bolduc10:42
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Walker – Joseph – Texier9:20
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko20:01
xG 1.07–0.29 (79%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- Faulk – Broberg16:50
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Suter – Perunovich12:06
xG 0.18–0.34 (35%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).