Tue, Dec 17, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 05 | 010 | 317 | 332 |
| TBL | 111 | 315 | 17 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21TBLLuke GlendeningAssists: Nick Perbix, Emil Lilleberg · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:28TBLNick PaulUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 7:36TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 14:18TBLMitchell ChaffeePPGWGAssists: Nick Paul, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–4
- P3 7:23CBJMikael PyyhtiaAssists: Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 8:05CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Kirill Marchenko · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 14:11CBJCole SillingerPPAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Kirill Marchenko · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 17:51TBLBrayden PointENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.70 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:21TBLNick Perbix: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:08TBLConor Geekie: Kneeing2 min
- P2 9:53TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:53CBJCole Sillinger: Instigator2 min
- P2 9:53CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:53TBLConor Geekie: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:53CBJCole Sillinger: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 9:53CBJCole Sillinger: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 18:49TBLMichael Eyssimont: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:31TBLLuke Glendening: Holding2 min
- P3 12:38TBLRyan McDonagh: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Olivier – Pyyhtia2:02
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Aston-Reese4:33
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Labanc – Pyyhtia3:35
xG 0.06–0.27 (19%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Sillinger5:38
xG 0.06–0.35 (15%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro8:13
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Severson – Werenski2:14
xG 0.07–0.02 (81%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Provorov – Christiansen2:13
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point10:54
xG 0.95–0.26 (78%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Glendening – Girgensons – Eyssimont6:36
xG 0.66–0.03 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Paul – Chaffee – Goncalves9:49
xG 0.59–0.13 (81%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Geekie8:36
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPerbix – Lilleberg11:29
xG 0.73–0.19 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:42
xG 0.73–0.26 (74%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh11:31
xG 0.81–0.52 (61%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).