Wed, Dec 18, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 14 | 15 | 210 | 419 |
| DET | 111 | 37 | 26 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Joel Farabee, Sean Couturier · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:19DETJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 10:15DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 10:40PHINoah CatesAssists: Tyson Foerster, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 16:05DETMichael RasmussenAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 17:27DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Christian Fischer · Snap, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 3:50PHIRyan PoehlingAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Sanheim · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 5:39PHIOwen TippettAssists: Scott Laughton, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–4
- P3 7:22DETPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–5
- P3 18:48DETLucas RaymondENAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.74 xG4–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 12:16PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min
- P1 15:42PHIOwen Tippett: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 12:09DETPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kasper won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Tippett – Farabee3:22
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Farabee6:52
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Konecny – Frost – Michkov3:31
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Couturier – Hathaway – Poehling2:07
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Drysdale5:59
xG 0.48–0.08 (85%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Seeler – Drysdale10:47
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Zamula12:10
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFischer – Veleno – Kasper7:59
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Tarasenko – Larkin – Raymond12:45
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Motte – Compher – Rasmussen12:19
xG 0.18–0.40 (32%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat8:48
xG 0.43–0.87 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson8:03
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Petry – Gustafsson3:35
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Petry – Holl6:06
xG 0.12–0.18 (40%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).