Wed, Dec 18, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Florida Panthers 6, Minnesota Wild 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 28 | 215 | 210 | 633 |
| MIN | 115 | 07 | 05 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Mackie Samoskevich · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 16:11MINMarco RossiPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 18:14FLAMackie SamoskevichGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 15:28FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Poke, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 18:54FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–1
- P3 11:10FLANiko MikkolaAssists: Anton Lundell, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 19:30FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:49FLAA.J. Greer: Charging2 min
- P1 15:03FLASam Reinhart: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:28MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:28FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:19MINMatt Boldy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:02MINRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:02MINRyan Hartman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:02FLAAnton Lundell: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Greer – Gadjovich9:43
xG 0.51–0.01 (98%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell11:40
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Tkachuk10:57
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich6:43
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMikkola – Balinskis5:50
xG 0.65–0.11 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Schmidt – Balinskis8:10
xG 0.53–0.18 (74%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola11:31
xG 0.35–0.24 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaunce – Shore – Khusnutdinov2:56
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Boldy8:59
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Foligno – Shore – Hartman2:46
xG 0.01–0.05 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi14:53
xG 0.64–0.69 (48%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Chisholm17:06
xG 1.01–0.61 (62%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Merrill10:48
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
- Brodin – Faber19:57
xG 0.33–1.40 (19%)attempts 12–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).