Thu, Dec 19, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Ottawa Senators 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 012 | 17 | 13 | 329 |
| CGY | 19 | 09 | 113 | 01 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:14CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Kevin Bahl, Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 19:00OTTNick CousinsAssists: Jake Sanderson, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 6:24OTTRidly GreigSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 7:16CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Matt Coronato, Connor Zary · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 0:55OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Linus Ullmark · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 8:34CGYNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
- P2 11:36OTTNick Cousins: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:36CGYBrayden Pachal: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:51CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:54OTTZack Ostapchuk: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:44OTTThomas Chabot: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle4:08
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Gregor – Greig – Ostapchuk7:35
xG 0.29–0.15 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Gaudette – Stützle5:15
xG 0.05–0.22 (18%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jensen – Chabot16:41
xG 0.54–0.74 (42%)attempts 13–27goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson14:44
xG 0.35–0.57 (38%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven13:40
xG 0.41–0.69 (37%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil12:06
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 22–5goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Pelletier – Zary10:09
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Duehr4:17
xG 0.06–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato11:49
xG 0.43–0.39 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Hanley13:31
xG 0.77–0.34 (69%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Weegar – Bahl2:34
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Bean – Pachal12:38
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).