Fri, Dec 20, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 214 | 010 | 29 | 433 |
| DET | 213 | 05 | 110 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:09MTLEmil HeinemanAssists: Jake Evans, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 13:27DETPatrick KaneAssists: Andrew Copp, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 18:31MTLJake EvansSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P1 19:27DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Jeff Petry, Michael Rasmussen · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 1:40DETTyler MotteAssists: Michael Rasmussen · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 8:42MTLArber XhekajAssists: Joel Armia, Emil Heineman · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 12:02MTLPatrik LainePPGWGAssists: Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield · Slap, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:04MTLKirby Dach: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:55MTLPatrik Laine: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:45MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:59DETChristian Fischer: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:33DETJoseph Veleno: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 16:07MTLKaiden Guhle: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Kasper
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Dvorak9:28
xG 0.85–0.28 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman7:59
xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Laine – Dach – Newhook9:45
xG 0.64–0.56 (53%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:28
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 17–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Guhle13:47
xG 0.95–0.18 (84%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Matheson – Hutson15:45
xG 0.97–0.70 (58%)attempts 24–10goals 1–3
- Savard – Xhekaj12:39
xG 0.33–0.64 (34%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Larkin – Raymond9:11
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Motte – Compher – Rasmussen7:48
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 2–13goals 1–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat11:07
xG 0.54–0.99 (35%)attempts 13–18goals 1–1
- Fischer – Veleno – Kasper8:23
xG 0.03–0.58 (5%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gustafsson – Johansson7:58
xG 0.21–0.29 (41%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
- Chiarot – Seider17:00
xG 0.67–0.93 (42%)attempts 10–26goals 2–0
- Petry – Holl14:25
xG 0.42–1.05 (29%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).