Sat, Dec 21, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 08 | 110 | 310 | 428 |
| CGY | 215 | 310 | 15 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:19CGYJonathan HuberdeauSHAssists: Blake Coleman, MacKenzie Weegar · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:26CGYNazem KadriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 10:09CHIConnor BedardAssists: Taylor Hall, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 10:37CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Jakob Pelletier, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 12:40CGYMatt CoronatoPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Connor Zary · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 17:51CGYBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Jake Bean, MacKenzie Weegar · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 0:57CHITyler BertuzziAssists: Connor Bedard, Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 11:30CHITyler BertuzziPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.36 xG3–5
- P3 18:52CHIIlya MikheyevAssists: Nick Foligno, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–5
- P3 19:37CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–6
Penalties (19)
- P1 11:13CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min
- P1 14:13CHIConnor Murphy: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P1 18:48CHITJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:15CHIFrank Nazar: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:03CHIRyan Donato: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:03CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:03CHIRyan Donato: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:03CGYBrayden Pachal: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:03CHIRyan Donato: Misconduct10 min
- P3 8:02CHIConnor Bedard: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:21CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:21CGYKevin Bahl: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:17CHINick Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:30CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:30CHITyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:30CHITyler Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:30CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:30CHITyler Bertuzzi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:30CGYMartin Pospisil: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Anderson – Reichel4:18
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Bertuzzi – Bedard6:50
xG 0.27–0.12 (68%)attempts 7–4goals 2–1
- Teravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev9:24
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Hall – Bertuzzi – Nazar3:55
xG 0.04–0.34 (10%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Vlasic9:07
xG 0.52–0.15 (77%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Jones – Allan10:15
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Jones – Vlasic3:49
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Coronato11:42
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Sharangovich – Pelletier – Zary6:56
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Duehr5:54
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil9:01
xG 0.07–0.43 (13%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBean – Pachal8:08
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Weegar – Hanley9:16
xG 0.40–0.11 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Weegar – Bean2:32
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).