Sat, Dec 21, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 1, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 06 | 06 | 121 |
| MTL | 311 | 26 | 07 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:41DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Jonatan Berggren, Moritz Seider · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 14:14MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 15:26MTLJake EvansGWGAssists: Joel Armia, Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 19:21MTLPatrik LainePPAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 2:40MTLEmil HeinemanAssists: Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 13:03MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Josh Anderson, David Savard · Slap, 0.05 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:24MTLMike Matheson: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:01DETJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P1 18:36DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:10DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:20MTLKaiden Guhle: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:24MTLEmil Heineman: Holding2 min
- P3 6:06DETWilliam Lagesson: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:54MTLKirby Dach: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:26DETMichael Rasmussen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Rasmussen – Raymond3:26
xG 0.25–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Tarasenko – Kasper3:22
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Motte – Copp – Rasmussen3:31
xG 0.21–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Veleno – Berggren – Kasper5:36
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Holl – Seider3:46
xG 0.08–0.05 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Gustafsson2:18
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Holl3:11
xG 0.03–0.06 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský8:31
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak7:52
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman8:54
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Laine – Dach – Newhook9:24
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Hutson13:05
xG 0.71–0.46 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Savard – Xhekaj9:31
xG 0.14–0.12 (52%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Carrier – Guhle12:30
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).