Sat, Dec 21, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Philadelphia Flyers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 18 | 17 | 29 | 01 | 425 |
| PHI | 010 | 06 | 412 | 12 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:47CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Kent Johnson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 7:05CBJMikael PyyhtiaAssists: Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 6:53PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 8:48PHINoah CatesAssists: Tyson Foerster, Cam York · Snap, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 10:01CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 11:51PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Owen Tippett, Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 15:49CBJJake ChristiansenAssists: Dmitri Voronkov · Snap, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 18:16PHITyson FoersterAssists: Travis Konecny, Owen Tippett · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 3:30PHIOwen TippettGWGAssists: Noah Cates · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:15PHIMorgan Frost: Interference2 min
- P1 7:26CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Holding2 min
- P2 1:55CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:29CBJSean Kuraly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 12:41PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:41CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Sillinger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov12:11
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- van Riemsdyk – Aston-Reese – Fantilli7:21
xG 0.10–0.26 (29%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Olivier – Johnson – Sillinger11:22
xG 0.44–0.68 (39%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Pyyhtia – Malatesta7:32
xG 0.15–0.79 (16%)attempts 3–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Werenski – Provorov2:14
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Severson – Provorov4:19
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Provorov – Christiansen12:08
xG 0.70–0.84 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 3–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Poehling – Lycksell5:07
xG 0.63–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Laughton – Konecny – Tippett4:35
xG 0.38–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Cates – Foerster – Michkov3:01
xG 0.31–0.01 (97%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Farabee2:07
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York18:11
xG 1.04–0.23 (82%)attempts 22–9goals 2–0
- Seeler – Ristolainen6:32
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Zamula8:08
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).