Mon, Dec 23, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Buffalo Sabres 7, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 28 | 312 | 25 | 725 |
| NYI | 05 | 111 | 012 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07BUFBeck MalenstynAssists: Jacob Bryson, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 16:49BUFJiri KulichGWGAssists: Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 6:53BUFJason ZuckerPPAssists: Jack Quinn, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 15:45BUFZach BensonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jiri Kulich · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–0
- P2 18:21BUFJack QuinnAssists: Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–0
- P2 19:05NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Anthony Duclair, Isaiah George · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–1
- P3 10:07BUFTage ThompsonENAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.28 xG6–1
- P3 15:49BUFJiri KulichUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG7–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:45NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:26BUFOwen Power: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:26NYIAlexander Romanov: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:00NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:21BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:21NYIBo Horvat: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:42BUFRyan McLeod: Interference2 min
- P3 5:28NYIIlya Sorokin: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P3 13:48NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:48BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka11:19
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – McLeod9:15
xG 0.23–0.09 (73%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Zucker – Tuch – Thompson9:41
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 3–17goals 0–0
- Krebs – Kulich – Benson10:10
xG 0.52–0.64 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram12:35
xG 0.85–0.29 (75%)attempts 12–14goals 3–0
- Clifton – Bryson12:13
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 7–18goals 2–0
- Samuelsson – Power13:58
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestHorvat – Holmstrom – Tsyplakov12:40
xG 0.56–0.27 (68%)attempts 22–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Duclair9:47
xG 0.39–0.40 (50%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Cizikas – Fasching – MacLean5:25
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Lee – Pageau – Barzal11:26
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – George9:15
xG 0.41–0.46 (47%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Dobson – Romanov16:42
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock14:10
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).