Sat, Dec 28, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Edmonton Oilers 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 29 | 07 | 01 | 327 |
| LAK | 29 | 09 | 15 | 16 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:43EDMKasperi KapanenAssists: Connor Brown, Ty Emberson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 12:32LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Warren Foegele, Brandt Clarke · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 17:35LAKWarren FoegeleAssists: Jordan Spence, Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 3:20EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 11:59EDMViktor ArvidssonAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 2:32LAKTanner JeannotAssists: Jordan Spence, Warren Foegele · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 3:19LAKQuinton ByfieldGWGAssists: Phillip Danault, Adrian Kempe · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 3:08LAKAlex Laferriere: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:16LAKTanner Jeannot: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:22EDMViktor Arvidsson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin12:35
xG 0.64–0.31 (67%)attempts 20–7goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid14:53
xG 0.60–0.52 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Perry – Skinner – Janmark2:43
xG 0.08–0.19 (29%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Skinner – Kapanen3:55
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:43
xG 0.76–0.53 (59%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Kulak – Bouchard2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Nurse – Stecher10:52
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – Jeannot – Byfield11:10
xG 0.53–0.36 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 3–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Turcotte13:00
xG 0.36–0.36 (50%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Laferriere13:24
xG 0.62–0.87 (42%)attempts 8–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Clarke12:46
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Moverare – Spence11:28
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Burroughs2:44
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).