Sat, Dec 28, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 19 | 017 | 235 |
| WPG | 09 | 26 | 28 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:40OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 4:03OTTRidly GreigPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 12:46WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 15:01WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Colin Miller · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 9:47WPGGabriel VilardiPPGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.39 xG2–3
- P3 11:19WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:18OTTNick Jensen: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:53WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:33WPGGabriel Vilardi: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 7:07OTTTyler Kleven: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:44WPGVille Heinola: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:07OTTMads Sogaard: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Pinto – Greig9:54
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 0–2
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle9:10
xG 0.20–0.15 (57%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Gaudette – Gregor – Ostapchuk5:09
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Reinhardt4:28
xG 0.00–0.78 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson12:55
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot16:51
xG 0.42–0.92 (31%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven9:15
xG 0.07–0.90 (7%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:44
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti8:16
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:49
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari5:00
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Pionk4:52
xG 0.87–0.03 (97%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Stanley – Heinola5:25
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Heinola6:14
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).