Sat, Dec 28, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 3, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 117 | 19 | 17 | 333 |
| SJS | 07 | 17 | 08 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:04SJSMacklin CelebriniPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Tyler Toffoli · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 6:50CGYMikael BacklundPPGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:59CGYJonathan HuberdeauENAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dustin Wolf · Backhand, 0.83 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:17SJSNico Sturm: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:17CGYBrayden Pachal: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:17SJSNico Sturm: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:52CGYConnor Zary: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:01SJSTimothy Liljegren: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:31SJSBarclay Goodrow: Holding2 min
- P3 2:40CGYMatt Coronato: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil11:56
xG 0.90–0.12 (88%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Sharangovich – Pelletier – Zary9:56
xG 0.48–0.13 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato13:00
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Duehr4:55
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Hanley14:17
xG 0.90–0.17 (84%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Bean – Pachal10:09
xG 0.74–0.51 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Bean – Bahl2:37
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Granlund – Kunin2:20
xG 0.14–0.09 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Smith – Celebrini12:32
xG 0.41–0.56 (42%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Granlund – Kostin6:52
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Wennberg – Kunin5:49
xG 0.00–0.58 (0%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren12:47
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Rutta – Mukhamadullin11:10
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Mukhamadullin2:12
xG 0.07–0.11 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).