Sun, Dec 29, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Montréal Canadiens 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 19 | 214 | 214 | 537 |
| TBL | 010 | 28 | 05 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Mike Matheson, Patrik Laine · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 0:37TBLBrandon HagelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 12:34MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Alexandre Carrier · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 18:28MTLJake EvansGWGAssists: Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 18:54TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 12:32MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Emil Heineman · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 18:08MTLBrendan GallagherENAssists: Josh Anderson, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.83 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:19MTLArber Xhekaj: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:50MTLLane Hutson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:08TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:12MTLAlex Newhook: Holding2 min
- P3 14:41TBLNikita Kucherov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Dvorak8:30
xG 0.88–0.22 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Armia – Evans – Heineman8:10
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Laine – Dach – Newhook11:50
xG 0.64–0.85 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:29
xG 0.71–1.08 (40%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Hutson17:01
xG 1.43–0.82 (64%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
- Savard – Xhekaj10:20
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Carrier – Guhle15:21
xG 0.48–1.07 (31%)attempts 16–17goals 2–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCirelli – Hagel – Geekie9:47
xG 0.75–0.46 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel2:55
xG 0.25–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Paul – Point9:10
xG 0.77–0.73 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
- Glendening – Girgensons – Eyssimont8:36
xG 0.39–0.43 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak16:23
xG 1.20–0.74 (62%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Perbix2:17
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh14:10
xG 0.45–0.84 (35%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).