Sun, Dec 29, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Ottawa Senators 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 113 | 214 | 337 |
| MIN | 19 | 07 | 015 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:19MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Declan Chisholm, Marcus Foligno · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 1:47OTTRidly GreigAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 12:42OTTJosh NorrisPPGWGAssists: Jake Sanderson, Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 19:16OTTClaude GirouxENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:58OTTRidly Greig: Interference2 min
- P1 6:58MINRyan Hartman: Holding2 min
- P2 7:50OTTNikolas Matinpalo: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:20MINBen Jones: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:20OTTNoah Gregor: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:03MINZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:15MINJared Spurgeon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:33OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Pinto – Greig13:09
xG 0.92–0.27 (77%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Gaudette – Batherson – Stützle11:01
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Giroux – Cousins – Norris10:38
xG 0.39–0.21 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Gregor – Reinhardt – Ostapchuk7:09
xG 0.22–0.29 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKleven – Matinpalo8:36
xG 0.57–0.04 (93%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Sanderson17:02
xG 0.73–0.42 (63%)attempts 22–15goals 1–0
- Jensen – Chabot19:04
xG 0.50–0.71 (41%)attempts 14–23goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestShore – Jones – Khusnutdinov6:18
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Eriksson Ek10:26
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Gaudreau – Trenin9:13
xG 0.11–0.32 (26%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Boldy – Rossi14:23
xG 0.34–1.29 (21%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Merrill9:23
xG 0.38–0.20 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber18:26
xG 0.39–0.49 (45%)attempts 21–18goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Chisholm14:26
xG 0.42–0.91 (32%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).