Sun, Dec 29, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Calgary Flames 0, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 012 | 09 | 010 | 031 |
| VGK | 015 | 111 | 211 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:59VGKBrett HowdenGWGAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Tanner Pearson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 14:41VGKVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P3 19:53VGKTanner PearsonENAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.58 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:48CGYBrayden Pachal: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:57VGKTanner Laczynski: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:50VGKBrett Howden: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 1:24CGYRasmus Andersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:25VGKBrayden McNabb: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:59CGYRyan Lomberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 14:17CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Coronato10:31
xG 0.86–0.39 (69%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Zary – Kuzmenko6:56
xG 0.33–0.14 (70%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Pelletier3:51
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Sharangovich – Pelletier – Zary2:47
xG 0.02–0.19 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weegar – Miromanov16:19
xG 0.91–0.92 (50%)attempts 19–19goals 0–1
- Andersson – Bahl13:41
xG 0.57–0.82 (41%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- Bean – Pachal10:50
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Olofsson – Eichel12:25
xG 0.80–0.32 (71%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Pearson – Laczynski – Holtz4:52
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Howden – Dorofeyev – Schwindt6:00
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Hertl – Kolesar9:33
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore13:23
xG 0.82–0.60 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin16:13
xG 0.60–0.46 (57%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Hague – Whitecloud12:43
xG 0.43–0.62 (41%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).