Sun, Dec 29, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 26 | 28 | 07 | 421 |
| LAK | 26 | 19 | 25 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:14LAKKevin FialaAssists: Alex Laferriere, Phillip Danault · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 8:17PHITyson FoersterAssists: Cam York, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 14:09PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Matvei Michkov, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–1
- P1 16:54LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Brandt Clarke, Alex Turcotte · Slap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 11:03PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Scott Laughton, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–2
- P2 13:42PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P2 15:04LAKWarren FoegeleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 6:44LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Quinton Byfield, Jacob Moverare · Deflected, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 8:55LAKAnze KopitarPPGWGAssists: Adrian Kempe · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:43PHINoah Cates: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:43LAKKyle Burroughs: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:50PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:39LAKQuinton Byfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:39PHIMatvei Michkov: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:22LAKAdrian Kempe: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Frost – Michkov9:23
xG 0.53–0.27 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
- Cates – Brink – Foerster12:23
xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Farabee8:00
xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett12:17
xG 0.56–0.96 (37%)attempts 11–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Zamula14:53
xG 0.58–0.71 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Sanheim – York15:44
xG 0.30–0.52 (37%)attempts 6–20goals 0–1
- Seeler – Drysdale13:26
xG 0.24–0.79 (23%)attempts 9–20goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Kempe – Byfield5:03
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Turcotte8:05
xG 0.34–0.20 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Foegele – Jeannot – Byfield6:29
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Danault – Fiala – Laferriere12:31
xG 0.66–0.79 (46%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Anderson18:16
xG 0.57–0.09 (87%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Moverare – Spence11:35
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Clarke11:48
xG 0.59–0.50 (54%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).