Tue, Dec 31, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Boston Bruins 1, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 06 | 011 | 127 |
| WSH | 211 | 08 | 18 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:21BOSJustin BrazeauAssists: Parker Wotherspoon · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 12:05WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 17:11WSHJakob ChychrunPPGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:51WSHAliaksei ProtasENAssists: Tom Wilson, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:56BOSMark Kastelic: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:47BOSCharlie McAvoy: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:47WSHConnor McMichael: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:36WSHMatt Roy: Interference2 min
- P2 15:11WSHJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:40BOSNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
- P3 10:26BOSBrandon Carlo: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:26WSHConnor McMichael: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:26BOSCharlie Coyle: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:26WSHAndrew Mangiapane: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie10:32
xG 1.06–0.51 (68%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Frederic – Brazeau – Koepke10:35
xG 0.86–0.66 (56%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Lindholm11:04
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Beecher – McLaughlin6:55
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – McAvoy3:51
xG 0.81–0.08 (91%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Carlo – Wotherspoon10:50
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Peeke – Lohrei10:57
xG 0.82–0.64 (56%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime9:52
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Eller – Mangiapane – Miroshnichenko8:07
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Wilson – Dubois – Protas11:28
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – McMichael10:40
xG 0.61–0.98 (38%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun13:23
xG 0.86–0.66 (57%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Roy – Sandin3:19
xG 0.04–0.01 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Chychrun2:57
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).