Tue, Dec 31, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Islanders 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 112 | 010 | 131 |
| TOR | 17 | 113 | 15 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:54TORDavid KampfAssists: William Nylander, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 11:59NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 12:15TORSteven LorentzGWGAssists: Ryan Reaves, Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:27TORJohn TavaresENAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.79 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:31NYIAnthony Duclair: Kneeing2 min
- P2 7:53TORJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
- P2 16:47NYIKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:29NYIAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:29TORMatthew Knies: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:57NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:17NYINoah Dobson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:27NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Abuse of officials10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Barzal10:51
xG 0.72–0.08 (90%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov9:42
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
- Fasching – Engvall – MacLean6:27
xG 0.05–0.05 (47%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Duclair – Horvat9:39
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – George11:17
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Dobson – Romanov15:07
xG 0.82–0.90 (47%)attempts 19–20goals 1–1
- Pelech – Pulock15:26
xG 0.36–0.49 (43%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Kampf – Knies10:10
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Reaves – Lorentz – Dewar6:47
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Tavares – Marner12:54
xG 0.49–0.66 (43%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
- Domi – Robertson – McMann8:09
xG 0.17–0.37 (31%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe13:43
xG 1.10–0.32 (78%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Rielly – Myers13:06
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit2:08
xG 0.07–0.12 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).