Tue, Dec 31, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 115 | 210 | 07 | 03 | 1 | 335 |
| CBJ | 210 | 08 | 17 | 03 | 2 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Sean Monahan, Denton Mateychuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 9:59CARTy SmithPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 15:43CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 5:47CARJack RoslovicAssists: Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 8:18CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Eric Robinson · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 4:58CBJDmitri VoronkovPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Sean Monahan stopped
- 2. CAR Jackson Blake stopped
- 3. CBJ Damon Severson stopped
- 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov scored
- 5. CBJ Kent Johnson scored
- 6. CAR Seth Jarvis stopped
- 7. CBJ Adam Fantilli scored
- 8. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:23CBJElvis Merzlikins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:00CARTyson Jost: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:00CBJAdam Fantilli: Embellishment2 min
- P1 19:16CARTyson Jost: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:10CBJMikael Pyyhtia: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:27CARJackson Blake: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:56CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:19CBJDante Fabbro: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:47CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Roslovic – Jarvis11:43
xG 0.99–0.31 (76%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov11:21
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Jost – Robinson – Blake5:44
xG 0.06–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier10:28
xG 0.22–0.35 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin16:02
xG 1.20–0.37 (76%)attempts 28–17goals 1–1
- Walker – Smith8:04
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield15:56
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Voronkov11:09
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Kuraly – Pyyhtia – Sillinger2:47
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Olivier – Johnson – Sillinger8:43
xG 0.20–0.42 (32%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Aston-Reese – Fantilli8:18
xG 0.07–0.58 (11%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Provorov – Mateychuk10:06
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
- Provorov – Fabbro2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Severson – Christiansen3:41
xG 0.00–0.06 (1%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).