Thu, Jan 2, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Minnesota Wild 4, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 07 | 114 | 01 | 1 | 433 |
| WSH | 113 | 17 | 110 | 01 | 0 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:19WSHTom WilsonAssists: Rasmus Sandin · Snap, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 11:24MINRyan HartmanAssists: Zach Bogosian, Joel Eriksson Ek · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 19:07MINYakov TreninSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 15:08WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 5:34WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 11:19MINMarco RossiAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.25 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
- 2. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. WSH Pierre-Luc Dubois stopped
- 4. MIN Matt Boldy scored
- 5. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:12MINZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:43WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:04MINMarat Khusnutdinov: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 6:47WSHNic Dowd: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Gaudreau – Trenin9:19
xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Shore – Jones – Khusnutdinov6:12
xG 0.37–0.20 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Boldy3:03
xG 0.09–0.14 (41%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Johansson – Hartman – Gaudreau2:51
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Chisholm14:31
xG 0.85–0.45 (65%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Merrill – Dermott8:33
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Brodin – Faber19:41
xG 0.72–1.21 (37%)attempts 16–25goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – Protas10:45
xG 0.94–0.10 (90%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Eller – Mangiapane – Miroshnichenko7:29
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime9:53
xG 0.23–0.79 (22%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – McMichael8:55
xG 0.39–1.02 (28%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin13:05
xG 1.05–0.88 (54%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Roy – Fehérváry12:47
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin2:58
xG 0.03–0.09 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).