Fri, Jan 3, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 013 | 14 | 111 | 03 | 0 | 231 |
| FLA | 010 | 110 | 110 | 03 | 2 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:36FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 11:09PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Matt Grzelcyk · Slap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 8:48FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Adam Boqvist · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 19:20PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Michael Bunting, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 2. PIT Rickard Rakell stopped
- 3. FLA Sam Reinhart scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 5. FLA Anton Lundell scored
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:18FLASam Reinhart: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 2:16FLAA.J. Greer: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:04FLAA.J. Greer: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 14:38PITBryan Rust: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 14:38PITRickard Rakell: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:38PITMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:38FLAEvan Rodrigues: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:38FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:38FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:56PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:57PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:08FLAAaron Ekblad: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:59FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell9:26
xG 0.69–0.28 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Hayes – Tomasino – O'Connor2:51
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Bunting – Glass10:51
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Nieto – Acciari – Lizotte8:54
xG 0.25–0.56 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Grzelcyk9:28
xG 0.98–0.12 (89%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Joseph15:11
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson2:25
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Greer – Samoskevich2:12
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Luostarinen5:38
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues5:30
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Bennett – Luostarinen – Samoskevich2:07
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Balinskis11:27
xG 0.69–0.37 (65%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Boqvist9:36
xG 0.45–0.39 (53%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling11:59
xG 0.45–0.82 (35%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).