Sun, Jan 5, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 25 | 05 | 19 | 00 | 319 |
| CAR | 09 | 314 | 05 | 13 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47PITKevin HayesAssists: Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 5:08PITMichael BuntingAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 4:15CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 12:45CARJalen ChatfieldAssists: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 16:18CARSeth JarvisAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 1:51PITErik KarlssonAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 1:30CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.31 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:58PITBlake Lizotte: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:32CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:50CARJuha Jaaska: Interference2 min
- P2 18:12PITMichael Bunting: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:34PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:59CARJalen Chatfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Acciari – Lizotte6:46
xG 0.48–0.25 (66%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Hayes – Beauvillier – O'Connor7:21
xG 0.27–0.23 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Malkin – Bunting – Glass10:09
xG 0.11–0.33 (24%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell12:48
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJoseph – Pickering11:14
xG 0.63–0.11 (85%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk15:26
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 16–22goals 2–2
- Letang – Pettersson18:47
xG 0.33–1.19 (22%)attempts 8–29goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Roslovic – Jarvis12:16
xG 0.61–0.32 (66%)attempts 18–10goals 2–1
- Drury – Blake – Jaaska8:26
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Necas – Robinson – Kotkaniemi9:20
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Svechnikov11:37
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin16:36
xG 1.01–0.38 (73%)attempts 29–14goals 2–2
- Orlov – Chatfield15:49
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Walker – Smith10:46
xG 0.32–0.53 (38%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).