Sun, Jan 5, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 114 | 19 | 07 | 02 | 232 |
| TOR | 213 | 05 | 05 | 12 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24PHITyson FoersterAssists: Noah Cates, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 4:02TORMatthew KniesAssists: Auston Matthews, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–1
- P1 18:52TOROliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Steven Lorentz, Connor Dewar · Poke, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 11:08PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Sean Couturier, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 2:25TORMorgan RiellyGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:54TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:54PHIGarnet Hathaway: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:54PHIGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:54TORJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:00PHIOwen Tippett: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:57TORMatthew Knies: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:08TORDavid Kampf: Holding2 min
- P3 5:13TORMax Domi: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Foerster10:02
xG 0.77–0.16 (82%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Couturier – Hathaway – Farabee7:28
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Laughton – Frost – Michkov7:49
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Konecny – Tippett – Poehling12:13
xG 0.27–0.78 (26%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale12:07
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York17:47
xG 0.89–0.63 (59%)attempts 16–20goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Zamula16:22
xG 0.36–0.65 (35%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies14:25
xG 0.88–0.60 (59%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Lorentz – Kampf – Dewar7:50
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Domi – Robertson – McMann7:18
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander10:48
xG 0.15–0.48 (23%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe5:30
xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Tanev – Benoit8:16
xG 0.42–0.37 (54%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly6:44
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).