Mon, Jan 6, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 14 | 29 | 17 | 00 | 420 |
| MTL | 16 | 110 | 27 | 11 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 10:47VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Nils Hoglander, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 3:21VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Jonathan Lekkerimäki, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–1
- P2 3:41VANJonathan LekkerimäkiAssists: Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 10:35MTLKaiden GuhleAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 2:01MTLKirby DachPPAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 6:54MTLLane HutsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 8:51VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.15 xG4–4
- OT 0:48MTLNick SuzukiPPGWGAssists: Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:37VANConor Garland: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:42VANNoah Juulsen: Interference2 min
- P2 5:53MTLEmil Heineman: Interference2 min
- P2 18:00MTLJake Evans: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:46VANKiefer Sherwood: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:39MTLCole Caufield: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:24VANNils Hoglander: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Lekkerimäki11:38
xG 0.62–0.21 (74%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Heinen – Hoglander – Sasson8:52
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Garland – Suter2:55
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Blueger – DeBrusk – Sherwood3:32
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes14:52
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Forbort – Desharnais11:26
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
- Juulsen – Hughes3:40
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:23
xG 0.65–0.48 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
- Pezzetta – Dach – Newhook3:02
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman10:09
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak9:18
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Hutson17:27
xG 1.20–0.41 (75%)attempts 21–10goals 2–1
- Struble – Xhekaj11:27
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Carrier – Guhle15:04
xG 0.33–0.72 (31%)attempts 15–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).