Tue, Jan 7, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Edmonton Oilers 4, Boston Bruins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 114 | 215 | 110 | 439 |
| BOS | 04 | 08 | 014 | 026 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33EDMAdam HenriqueGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 11:11EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 16:35EDMAdam HenriqueAssists: Jeff Skinner, Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P3 16:25EDMViktor ArvidssonENAssists: Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:35BOSNikita Zadorov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:23EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P2 10:37BOSTrent Frederic: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:37EDMCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:37BOSTrent Frederic: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:27EDMMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P3 13:20BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin8:10
xG 1.27–0.19 (87%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Brown – McDavid7:56
xG 0.81–0.12 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Skinner – Hyman6:34
xG 0.39–0.08 (84%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Perry – Janmark – Kapanen6:14
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Emberson10:27
xG 1.36–0.35 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard12:14
xG 1.20–0.30 (80%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Brown – Nurse10:02
xG 0.55–0.09 (86%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFrederic – Brazeau – Wahlstrom10:19
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher7:29
xG 0.07–0.25 (22%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie11:22
xG 0.47–0.72 (40%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Lindholm10:48
xG 0.57–1.14 (33%)attempts 19–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Peeke – Lohrei12:22
xG 0.49–0.58 (46%)attempts 18–9goals 0–2
- Wotherspoon – McAvoy16:48
xG 0.37–0.58 (39%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Carlo14:12
xG 0.33–1.95 (14%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).