Thu, Jan 9, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 4, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 26 | 210 | 05 | 421 |
| OTT | 013 | 06 | 016 | 035 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:17BUFJack QuinnGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 13:17BUFJack QuinnAssists: Peyton Krebs, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 4:11BUFDylan CozensUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 10:22BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:44OTTBrady Tkachuk: Charging2 min
- P1 6:01BUFJack Quinn: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:08BUFJack Quinn: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:06OTTZack Ostapchuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:24BUFJason Zucker: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:05BUFDennis Gilbert: Holding2 min
- P3 1:25OTTNick Cousins: Elbowing2 min
- P3 11:44OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:44BUFDennis Gilbert: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:44OTTBrady Tkachuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:44BUFDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:44OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Zucker – Thompson – Cozens12:01
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Krebs – Quinn – Kozak2:01
xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Tuch – McLeod – Peterka9:40
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Krebs – Quinn – Benson7:16
xG 0.10–0.42 (19%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jokiharju – Dahlin2:12
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Clifton – Bryson4:38
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Byram2:58
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Norris – Stützle3:25
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle3:26
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gregor – Reinhardt – Ostapchuk2:02
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle2:20
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub15:05
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 20–5goals 0–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo14:00
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot12:22
xG 0.34–0.31 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).