Thu, Jan 9, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Edmonton Oilers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 221 | 015 | 343 |
| PIT | 413 | 16 | 07 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19PITRickard RakellAssists: Bryan Rust, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 7:22PITBryan RustAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 9:46PITKevin HayesAssists: Drew O'Connor, Jesse Puljujarvi · Snap, 0.27 xG0–3
- P1 12:33EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P1 13:41PITDrew O'ConnorGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 5:42PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Michael Bunting, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.15 xG1–5
- P2 10:58EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm · Slap, 0.04 xG2–5
- P2 19:15EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:01EDMVasily Podkolzin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:07PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:58PITMichael Bunting: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 10:58EDMKasperi Kapanen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:09PITBryan Rust: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 11:04PITMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid11:29
xG 0.91–0.42 (69%)attempts 24–11goals 2–1
- Perry – Henrique – Skinner2:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Arvidsson – Podkolzin2:24
xG 0.03–0.01 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Janmark – Kapanen4:03
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard16:36
xG 1.23–0.74 (62%)attempts 30–15goals 2–1
- Brown – Nurse7:58
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Brown – Emberson2:00
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Acciari – Lizotte8:12
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Bunting – Beauvillier – Glass8:47
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Hayes – Puljujarvi – O'Connor7:31
xG 0.58–0.52 (53%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell15:50
xG 0.80–0.98 (45%)attempts 16–25goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestJoseph – Pickering11:31
xG 0.60–0.33 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson17:06
xG 1.10–0.93 (54%)attempts 18–26goals 4–1
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk16:08
xG 0.58–0.79 (42%)attempts 15–26goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).