Thu, Jan 9, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 2, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 18 | 18 | 07 | 223 |
| STL | 416 | 210 | 08 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45STLRobert ThomasUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 4:31STLTyler TuckerAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Zachary Bolduc · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 6:40STLJordan KyrouGWGAssists: Cam Fowler, Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P1 13:55STLDylan HollowayAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P1 16:00ANANikita NesterenkoAssists: Jackson LaCombe · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 4:45STLRobert ThomasAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Brandon Saad · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–5
- P2 8:02STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Brandon Saad, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–6
- P2 14:38ANASam ColangeloAssists: Ryan Strome, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:20ANACutter Gauthier: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:28STLNathan Walker: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:44STLTyler Tucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:44ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:54STLRobert Thomas: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Lundeström – Carlsson11:54
xG 0.58–0.20 (75%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Fabbri – McTavish – Gauthier10:48
xG 0.34–0.46 (42%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Harkins – Leason – Nesterenko9:56
xG 0.29–0.57 (34%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Colangelo9:25
xG 0.25–1.06 (19%)attempts 7–19goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- Helleson – Mintyukov16:48
xG 0.28–0.36 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Gudas – LaCombe16:13
xG 0.76–1.08 (41%)attempts 20–24goals 2–2
- Dumoulin – Trouba15:19
xG 0.61–1.28 (32%)attempts 14–19goals 0–4
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Kyrou – Holloway11:45
xG 0.93–0.17 (85%)attempts 19–7goals 2–0
- Saad – Buchnevich – Thomas10:36
xG 1.05–0.42 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 2–2
- Sundqvist – Neighbours – Bolduc11:10
xG 0.16–0.50 (24%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko11:51
xG 0.15–0.62 (19%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko14:15
xG 0.87–0.27 (77%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Faulk – Broberg14:34
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 20–9goals 1–2
- Fowler – Broberg2:26
xG 0.13–0.15 (47%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).