Sat, Jan 11, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 37 | 212 | 03 | 522 |
| PIT | 08 | 011 | 010 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:16OTTTyler KlevenGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Adam Gaudette · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 5:14OTTShane PintoPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot · Slap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 19:04OTTShane PintoSHAssists: Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 0:41OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Josh Norris, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–0
- P2 7:06OTTTim StützleAssists: Claude Giroux, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–0
Penalties (18)
- P1 3:16PITMichael Bunting: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P1 7:05PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:05PITMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:05OTTNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:05PITMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:05OTTZack Ostapchuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:05OTTNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:55OTTDrake Batherson: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:18PITMatt Nieto: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:43OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:19PITAlex Nedeljkovic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:19OTTDrake Batherson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:19OTTCole Reinhardt: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:53OTTNick Cousins: Boarding2 min
- P1 0:00PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:19PITMichael Bunting: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:08OTTTyler Kleven: Interference2 min
- P2 17:09OTTNick Cousins: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Gaudette – Stützle4:36
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk5:29
xG 0.10–0.16 (37%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Cousins – Pinto – Greig7:33
xG 0.10–0.50 (16%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot11:14
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo13:07
xG 0.19–0.32 (37%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub13:23
xG 0.14–0.66 (18%)attempts 4–20goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell11:09
xG 0.48–0.22 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Bunting – Beauvillier – Glass7:19
xG 0.27–0.04 (87%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Hayes – Puljujarvi – O'Connor6:57
xG 0.13–0.05 (70%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Nieto – Acciari – Lizotte7:31
xG 0.04–0.19 (19%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Grzelcyk14:08
xG 0.63–0.35 (65%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Joseph – Pickering9:31
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson11:15
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).