Sat, Jan 11, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Anaheim Ducks 0, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 07 | 08 | 022 |
| PHI | 214 | 15 | 311 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48PHIMorgan FrostGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Owen Tippett · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 18:11PHIJamie DrysdalePPAssists: Travis Konecny, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 16:12PHIOwen TippettAssists: Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 0:24PHIRyan PoehlingAssists: Garnet Hathaway, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.21 xG0–4
- P3 7:36PHIMatvei MichkovPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Jamie Drysdale · Snap, 0.12 xG0–5
- P3 8:55PHIGarnet HathawayAssists: Ryan Poehling, Scott Laughton · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–6
Penalties (18)
- P1 9:44ANAMason McTavish: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:05ANARyan Strome: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:20PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:20ANARobby Fabbri: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:20ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:20PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00PHITravis Sanheim: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:29PHIMorgan Frost: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:57ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:57PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:44PHIMatvei Michkov: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:44ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:35ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:35PHINick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:35ANARyan Strome: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:35ANARadko Gudas: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Poehling won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Killorn – Lundeström – Carlsson10:25
xG 0.06–0.24 (20%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Strome – Vatrano – Colangelo8:08
xG 0.32–0.77 (30%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Fabbri – McTavish – Gauthier9:44
xG 0.28–0.74 (27%)attempts 11–20goals 0–1
- Johnston – Harkins – Leason7:13
xG 0.00–0.64 (0%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Helleson – LaCombe2:53
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Helleson3:12
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Trouba – Mintyukov2:56
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Tippett – Frost8:59
xG 1.01–0.07 (93%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Poehling9:30
xG 0.50–0.09 (84%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster10:12
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Couturier – Lycksell – Michkov10:02
xG 0.11–0.50 (18%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zamula11:29
xG 0.94–0.08 (92%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Sanheim – York15:39
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Seeler – Drysdale9:06
xG 0.53–0.14 (79%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).