Sat, Jan 11, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 1, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 117 | 05 | 010 | 132 |
| CGY | 04 | 16 | 18 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:19LAKJacob MoverareUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 8:58CGYMatt CoronatoAssists: Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 4:36CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPGWGAssists: Matt Coronato, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:57CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:28LAKQuinton Byfield: Holding2 min
- P1 17:10LAKKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:37CGYRasmus Andersson: Interference2 min
- P2 9:12LAKPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:12CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:05LAKTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:05CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:43CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:16LAKBrandt Clarke: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:11CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:11LAKKyle Burroughs: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:12LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – Moore – Byfield6:15
xG 0.25–0.04 (87%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield4:14
xG 0.11–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Turcotte7:06
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Laferriere9:05
xG 0.30–0.57 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Clarke3:11
xG 0.26–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Anderson13:02
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Spence – Clarke2:09
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestSharangovich – Pelletier – Kuzmenko7:14
xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Coronato10:55
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Lomberg – Rooney – Duehr4:19
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Pospisil10:49
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Hanley15:46
xG 0.89–0.57 (61%)attempts 19–17goals 1–1
- Bean – Pachal10:19
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl13:01
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).